Compelling reasons to believe the Timberwolves will beat the Suns in the 2024 NBA playoffs.

Rudy Gobert headlines the Wolves’ strong defense, but an often overlooked aspect of their defensive prowess is their adeptness at navigating screens. Their ability to stay connected to ball handlers through screens has been a key factor in their defensive success all season. However, the Suns presented a challenge with their HORNS action, using one shooter and a big man as primary screen-setters. This means the Wolves not only have to contend with scorers like Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Bradley Beal, but also must prevent Grayson Allen from getting open looks and limit Jusuf Nurkic’s effectiveness as a roll man.

Rudy Gobert Was Supposed To Take The T-Wolves To The Next Level. Why Isn't  It Working? | FiveThirtyEight

The Suns’ offense is a sight to behold, making it even more difficult for Minnesota to defend with their unique lineup. Karl-Anthony Towns playing at the power forward position presents a matchup problem that Phoenix will seek to exploit in the first round of the playoffs. While Towns has made significant defensive improvements this season, this series will likely expose some of his weaknesses on that end of the floor.

KAT’s perimeter defense looms large

Many envision effective defense as simply shutting down opponents one-on-one, but that’s not the crux of outstanding team defense.

The core elements of exceptional defense today encompass navigating screens, maintaining positional versatility, and providing strong rim protection.

In the video above, the Suns utilize Grayson Allen as the initial screener. To prevent Allen from getting an open three-pointer, the Timberwolves opt to switch defensively. Consequently, Karl-Anthony Towns finds himself tasked with guarding Bradley Beal on the perimeter. However, the primary issue lies not in individual defense but in effectively navigating screens.

Grayson Allen agrees to 4-year, $70M extension with Suns - ESPN

Towns then faces another screen from Jusuf Nurkic. With Rudy Gobert typically employing drop coverage, Towns is required to fight over the screen and stay closely attached to Beal. However, the seven-foot center struggles to execute this, highlighting a deficiency that plagued the Timberwolves throughout the season.

‘Zoom’ actions, commonly seen across the league and favored by teams like the Sacramento Kings and New Orleans Pelicans, have long served as indicators of this significant flaw.

Due to their struggles in defending against Phoenix’s diverse range of screen-setters, the Timberwolves’ defense is being challenged like never before, and it’s proving ineffective. The Suns’ victory over them in the regular season finale completed a series sweep. Nonetheless, Minnesota possesses some potential solutions to address this issue if they can fully embrace them.

Rudy Gobert must be more than a rim-protector

Although the Wolves would ideally have Rudy Gobert patrolling the paint throughout the series, the reality is different. Firstly, the Suns ranked 28th in points in the paint in the entire NBA, with only the Memphis Grizzlies and Portland Trail Blazers faring worse. While Gobert’s shot-blocking skills are valuable, they aren’t halting Phoenix’s preferred method of attack.

Minnesota should focus on preventing pull-up jumpers from Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Bradley Beal. Three-pointers and mid-range shots have been particularly damaging to the Wolves against Phoenix this season. Rather than tasking Karl-Anthony Towns with navigating screens, Minnesota should leverage its size and versatility by freely switching defensive assignments. Gobert is capable of defending in isolation and switching onto perimeter players better than casual fans might realize, and Minnesota should exploit this.

Gobert’s perimeter defensive statistics were exceptional this season. He contested an average of 3.8 three-point attempts per game, with opponents shooting just 32.9% on those shots according to NBA.com/stats, well below the league average. While many teams might be concerned about switching another player onto Jusuf Nurkic due to rebounding worries, Minnesota’s use of Towns, another center, alleviates that concern.

 

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