The Houston Astros have emerged as one of Major League Baseball’s most significant letdowns in the early stages of the 2024 season. With a record of 12-23 leading up to games on May 8, they find themselves languishing in the bottom of the American League West standings. Despite their struggles, there’s speculation about the Astros potentially reviving their fortunes and becoming active participants in trade discussions leading up to the deadline. One enticing prospect they could pursue is Toronto Blue Jays’ star first baseman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
In a recent article for The Athletic, Jim Bowden outlined a hypothetical trade scenario between the Astros and the Blue Jays. Bowden’s proposal involves the Astros acquiring Guerrero Jr. in exchange for first baseman/outfielder Joey Loperfido and outfielder Kenedy Corona. With Guerrero set to become a free agent after the 2025 season and no long-term deal in sight with the Blue Jays, Bowden suggests that the Blue Jays might consider dealing him this July if they fall out of contention.
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Highlighting Guerrero’s youth and potential, Bowden envisions him slotting into the Astros’ lineup between Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, potentially bolstering their offensive prowess for the foreseeable future. Both Loperfido and Corona are considered promising prospects within the Astros’ organization, with Loperfido having recently made his MLB debut and Corona currently honing his skills in Double-A.
The proposed trade represents an intriguing possibility for both teams, offering the Astros a chance to inject firepower into their lineup while providing the Blue Jays with a substantial return for Guerrero’s services.
How Could Guerrero’s Move to Houston Be Implemented in Practice?
Initially, Houston pursuing Guerrero may seem puzzling, given that they already have Jose Abreu locked in until the end of 2025. However, Abreu’s performance has been lackluster amidst the Astros’ disappointing start to the season.
In the first 77 plate appearances of 2024, Abreu has struggled significantly, with a .059/.156/.113 triple slash, only one extra-base hit (a double), a -20 wRC+, and a -1.2 fWAR. Even in his first year with Houston, Abreu’s numbers were modest (.237/.296/.383), with an 86 wRC+ and a -0.5 fWAR.
While Abreu has agreed to a minor league stint to address his slump, there’s uncertainty about whether it will yield positive results. Should the Astros find themselves in need of additional power through trade, Guerrero could present an enticing option. Although Toronto may not be inclined to sell just yet, they too have experienced a shaky start to the season, sitting at a 17-20 record as of May 8, residing at the bottom of the AL East.
Despite Guerrero’s own underwhelming performance early in the season—a .234/.335/.365 line with four home runs and 15 RBI in 158 plate appearances—he could represent a significant upgrade over Abreu, especially if the current combination of Loperfido and Jon Singleton fails to deliver in terms of production.
