Twins fans likely have hazy memories of Zack Littell, who initially struggled as a starter before finding his footing as a dependable reliever in 2019, despite a rather high expected earned run average (xERA) of 5.51. However, his performance during the 2020 season fell short of expectations for the playoff-bound team, leading to his removal from the roster. Littell then had stints with the Giants, Rangers, and Red Sox before landing with the Tampa Bay Rays midway through last year.
In typical Rays fashion, they transformed Littell from a reliever back into a starter, and he thrived, pitching 87 innings with a respectable 3.93 ERA. His performance has continued to improve this season; in 27 innings, he boasts an even better 3.11 ERA and ranks among the top 20 in Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP). Not too shabby for a player picked up from the scrap heap midway through the season.
“There’s a lot of guys in the league that probably could be decent starters,” Zack Littell told me.
He had a lot of insight on the player development forces that might make the bullpen —> rotation move more common.
Read the whole thing at @OptaAnalyst. https://t.co/k0uLDBEO1o pic.twitter.com/bYhU47O7in
— Zach Crizer (@zcrizer) April 25, 2024
However, the Rays aren’t the only ones employing this strategy. Converting relief pitchers into successful starters has become somewhat of a trend in 2024. For instance, the Braves’ standout starter is now Reynaldo Lopez, who previously shined with the White Sox. Michael King of the Padres nearly threw a no-hitter into the eighth inning. Jordan Hicks is excelling for the Giants. Meanwhile, Seth Lugo is making a case for the Cy Young Award while pitching for Kansas City.
Converted Starters | IP | ERA- | FIP- |
Zack Littell (Rays) | 27 | 91 | 76 |
Reynaldo Lopez (Braves) | 25 | 18 | 71 |
Michael King (Padres) | 30.2 | 107 | 144 |
Jordan Hicks (Giants) | 28 | 41 | 99 |
Seth Lugo (Royals) | 38 | 41 | 85 |
So the question arises: could Durán join this group of successful conversions? Cody Schoenmann pondered this same topic back in January, though at the time, there wasn’t enough data to support the idea that these transitions would be effective. However, it now appears that these conversions are indeed yielding positive results.
Furthermore, the Twins are currently in need of quality innings. Anthony DeSclafani never took the mound for them, while Louie Varland was sent down to the minors to refine his pitching. Although Simeon Woods Richardson has shown promise in the fifth rotation spot, there is a scarcity of reliable reinforcements behind him. While the Twins could opt to sign a veteran to a minor league deal, what if they gave Jhoan Durán a chance to provide five strong innings?
Durán didn’t have a genuine opportunity to showcase his starting potential within the Twins organization. Following his acquisition in the Eduardo Escobar trade, the absence of the minor league season in 2020 and an elbow injury in 2021 prompted the Twins to reassess his role, especially considering his limited innings pitched, never exceeding 115. He abandoned his changeup, relying primarily on his fastball, “splinker,” and curveball.
Since reaching the majors, a few aspects of Durán’s pitching profile have evolved. He now throws his infamous splinker as frequently as his curveball, creating a three-pitch repertoire. While this might not be sufficient to pitch deep into games, it could potentially allow him to navigate through five innings and reduce the strain on the bullpen. After all, Durán has demonstrated the ability to comfortably handle two innings on numerous occasions, including an impressive performance in the Twins’ final playoff game.
Jhoan Duran, 98mph Splinker (home plate view) pic.twitter.com/tsQh4wXOcz
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 12, 2023
When Durán made his debut in 2022, there wasn’t much hope in the bullpen beyond him. However, the Twins have since built a formidable bullpen, with Griffin Jax and Brock Stewart leading the charge, making it one of the top 5 bullpens in the league (and second in strikeouts). Adding Durán to the mix would only elevate the group to elite status. However, the Twins must prioritize their needs at the moment.
Nevertheless, this idea seems like wishful thinking. When asked about the possibility last year, Rocco Baldelli tempered expectations, expressing more enthusiasm about Durán closing games rather than starting them. Additionally, the allure of Durán’s spectacular entrance as the league’s most epic closer adds another layer to the discussion.
Converting Durán into a full-time starter for the 2024 season might be too late, especially considering the Twins’ cautious approach to managing his return from injury. However, unless the Twins have alternative plans to strengthen their rotation, they may need to seriously consider this option heading into the 2025 season.